Domestic alumina prices continued to move upward amid brisk trades [SMM Morning Comment on Alumina market Nov 14]

Futures market: The most-traded alumina 2501 contract opened at 5,244 yuan/mt overnight, with a high of 53,452 yuan/mt, a low of 5,172 yuan/mt, and closed at 5,211 yuan/mt, down 21 yuan/mt, a decrease of 0.40%. Open interest was 268,000 lots, down 7,075 lots.

Spot market: Yesterday, 7,000 mt of alumina was traded in Shanxi at 5,700 yuan/mt; 2,000 mt was traded in Guizhou at 5,600 yuan/mt; and 1,000 mt was traded in Guangxi at 5,550 yuan/mt.

Summary: Demand side, domestic demand for alumina from aluminum production remains stable and positive. Although some enterprises expect to have plans for pot shutdowns or maintenance, the overall impact on alumina demand is limited. There is a supply gap in overseas alumina, but recently domestic spot alumina prices have been continuously rising, and the export window has gradually closed. Supply side, stimulated by the continuous expansion of profit margins, alumina refineries are highly motivated to increase production, but ore still limits the increase in alumina capacity. Some alumina refineries in south-west China are still under maintenance, and in the short term, the alumina fundamentals still show a tight supply situation. Heavy pollution weather warnings have re-emerged in north China, and continuous attention is needed on the impact of environmental protection policies during the heating season on alumina production in the north.